UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts (New Scientist)
The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government. Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.
Comment by @AlexBerenson: This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollegeauthors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for COVID; He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick. Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous. Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work. Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
More from Imperial
- Coronavirus pandemic could have caused 40 million deaths if left unchecked (Imperial)
- COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures (Imperial)
virus modeling