Things that have a high probability of being true for media & entertainment over the short term (~24 months)
- The average income of professionals in many creative Industries will significantly decline.
- The amount of content on most online channels will exponentially increase (incl. Lot's of "generative spam"). It will put lots of pressure on discovery algorithms, further hurting artists.
- The generative AI tool provider space will consolidate, with most startups disappearing and giant orgs grabbing even more media industry market share.
- Giant media platforms will significantly cut their costs by replacing human content Pipelines with AI (think music license cost that YouTube and TikTok pay)
- Lots of Lawsuit's will happen (training data copyright, etc), which only the giant orgs able to navigate.
- A new industry wide copyright regime and business model will start to emerge, but Major divides remain.
- A totally new media form will appear, than combines AI generated media with real time bio-signal feedback (BCI, etc.). This "proto-wireheading" media will become more addictive than crack.
Reflections prompted by this, rather techno-utopian tweet on the same topic
Opinions in this space that deviate from the US mainstream narrative - "AI inevitably makes us all exponentially more beautiful, creative, intelligent and rich" - hardly get any airtime. It's intellectually dishonest & lazy, leading to bad business/social outcomes. The brutal logic of late capitalism is at work, this we should not forget. An alternative system is possible for genAI, but it is mostly a grand socio-economic system question. Maybe after the house of cards falls.