Patterns of Nature
Patterns of Nature
Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens (2019)
Abstract:
Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise of outbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control‘. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.
NOVA: An Interactive Graphics-Scripting Platform for Education and Computational Research
Nova: A Modern Platform for System Dynamics, Spatial, and Agent-Based Modeling - by Richard M. Salter (2013)
In this paper we describe Nova, a new Java-based modeling platform that naturally supports the creation of models in the system dynamics, spatial and agent-based modeling paradigms. Nova uses a visual language to express model design, and provides automatic conversion for such models to script form for execution. Nova's architecture promotes hierarchical design, code reuse, and extensibility through the use of plug-ins. The Nova Website, www.novamodeler.com, is being built to foster a vibrant user community by providing ample support for model and plug-in construction, and user services such as online repositories for user-contributed content.
Numerus Model Builder Tutorial 1a
The process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of and/or the outcome of a real-world or physical system. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.
Demystifying Simulation - Simulation software explained
Running shoes leave large carbon footprint (2013)
According to researchers at MIT, a new pair of typical running shoes generates 30 pounds of carbon emissions, equivalent to keeping a 100-watt light bulb switched on for one week. Their research revealed more than two thirds of the carbon impact came from manufacturing plants and only a small portion from extracting raw materials.
A typical pair of running shoes comprises of 65 discrete parts requiring more than 360 processing steps to assemble, from sewing and cutting to moulding, foaming and heating. Nearly 25 billion shoes were purchased around the world in 2010, the majority of them manufactured in China and other developing countries.
All Eco Sneakers Do Is Kill The Planet a Little Bit Slower (2019)
Eco-sneakers are not going to save the planet. In fact, all they’ll do is kill it a little more slowly than conventional sneakers. The average eco-sneaker cuts emissions by less than 10%. Meanwhile, only 1 in every 29 pairs of sneakers on the market qualifies as an eco-sneakers. Even worse: on average brands charge an additional $48.79 for a pair of eco sneakers -- essentially profiteering from consumers' desires to save the planet, or incentivizing consumers to buy conventional sneakers with even higher carbon emissions.
Turing-NLG: A 17-billion-parameter language model by Microsoft
"Turing Natural Language Generation (T-NLG) is a 17 billion parameter language model by Microsoft that outperforms the state of the art on many downstream NLP tasks. We present a demo of the model, including its freeform generation, question answering, and summarization capabilities, to academics for feedback and research purposes. <|endoftext|>" – This summary was generated by the Turing-NLG language model itself.
Photo of the first "computer bug": A Moth (1947)
Wikipedia: While Grace Hopper was working on a Mark II Computer at Harvard University in 1947, her associates discovered a moth that was stuck in a relay; the moth impeded the operation of the relay. While neither Hopper nor her crew mentioned the phrase "debugging" in their logs, the case was held as an instance of literal "debugging." For many years, the term bug had been in use in engineering. The remains of the moth can be found in the group's log book at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History in Washington, D.C.
Interview with Eric Trist (1909 – 1993), a British scientist and leading figure in the field of organizational development (OD). He was one of the founders of the Tavistock Institute.
"What would have happened if they [new methods of physical and chemical psychiatric treatments] had been available for the last five hundred years?... John Wesley who had years of depressive torment before accepting the idea of salvation by faith rather than good works, might have avoided this, and simply gone back to help his father as curate of Epworth following treatment. Wilberforce, too, might have gone back to being a man about town, and avoided his long fight to abolish slavery and his addiction to laudanum. Loyola and St Francis might also have continued with their military careers. Perhaps, even earlier, Jesus Christ might simply have returned to his carpentry following the use of modern [psychiatric] treatments." - William Sargant (1907 - 1988)
Related: Over the Edge - by Mike Jay
Uber and Lyft Are Creating Traffic, Not Reducing It
Rather than the apps becoming a model of algorithm-driven efficiency, drivers in major cities cruise for fares without passengers an estimated 40% of the time. Multiple studies show that Uber and Lyft have pulled people away from buses, subways and walking, and that the apps add to the overall amount of driving in the U.S. A study found that over 60% of the slowdown of traffic speeds in San Francisco between 2010 and 2016 was due to the introduction of the ride-hail companies.
350,000 Tonnes of Pesticides Sold in EU Each Year – Still No Clear Picture of the Risks
The European Commission and Member States need to pull up their socks on pesticides says the European Court of Auditors. More than 10 years since the directive on the sustainable use of pesticides, it still isn’t doing enough to measure and reduce the risks, finds a report released last week. While integrated pest management (IPM) is in theory mandatory for farmers, record keeping about it is not. Moreover, IPM won’t be taken seriously unless it’s pegged to CAP payouts, warn the auditors.
Hacking my arm prosthesis to output CV so that it plugs into my synth: Thought-controlled music!