Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don’t Know Why (Bloomberg) - "The simulators used to forecast warming have suddenly started giving us less time."
tag > ClimateChange
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Quantitative spatial upscaling of categorical information: The multi‐dimensional grid‐point scaling algorithm - by Daniel Gann (2019)
A new scaling algorithm for categorical data generates representative classification system and reduces information loss.
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List of largest companies by revenue - 9 of the top 10 are in the oil business (2019)
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Coactlab.org - an open-source environmental tech incubator in Barcelona.
Focus Areas of Coactlab "Use of technology has separated us from nature and destabilized the balance of our climate. Technology must find a new purpose; to repair our natural systems, help life to thrive, and connect as many humans as possible to the process of change. Short-sighted tech helped cause this dilemma, far-sighted tech can help fix it."
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China moves to phase out single-use plastics (reuters)
China is stepping up restrictions on the production, sale and use of single-use plastic products, the state planner said on Sunday, as it seeks to tackle one of the country’s biggest environmental problems. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which issued the new policy, said plastic bags will be banned in all of China’s major cities by the end of 2020 and banned in all cities and towns in 2022. Markets selling fresh produce will be exempt from the ban until 2025. By end of 2020, the restaurant industry will be banned from using single-use straws. By 2025, towns and cities across China must reduce the consumption of single-use plastic items in the restaurant industry by 30%.
China starts 10-year fishing ban on Yangtze River (xinhuanet)
Starting from this year, the ban will be observed in 332 conservation areas in the Yangtze River basin, which will also be expanded to all natural waterways of the river and its major tributaries from no later than Jan. 1, 2021. Fishing will also be prohibited on natural waterways of large lakes connected to the Yangtze such as the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake for 10 years starting from no later than Jan. 1, 2021.
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Solar Cycle 25 Forecast (NOAA)
First new sunspots in 40 days herald coming solar cycle (space.com)
Researchers discover a new source of space weather – too close to home
Alexander Chizhevsky (1897 - 1964) was a Soviet-era interdisciplinary scientist, a biophysicist who founded "heliobiology" (study of the sun's effect on biology) and "aero-ionization" (study of effect of ionization of air on biological entities). He also was noted for his work in "cosmo-biology", biological rhythms and hematology." He may be most notable for his use of historical research techniques (historiometry) to link the 11-year solar cycle, Earth’s climate and the mass activity of peoples.
Book: The Role of the Sun in Climate Change - by Douglas V. Hoyt & Kenneth H. Schatten (Oxford University Press, 2007) (PDF)
Book starts with this paragraph: "About 400 years before the birth of Christ, near Mt. Lyscabettus in ancient Greece, the pale orb of the sun rose through the mists. According to habit, Meton recorded the sun’s location on the horizon. In this era when much remained to be discovered, Meton hoped to find predictable changes in the locations of sunrise and moonrise. Although rainy weather had limited his recent observations, this foggy morning he discerned specks on the face of the sun, the culmination of many such blemishes in recent years. On a hunch, Meton began examining his more than 20 years of solar records. These seemed to confirm his belief: when the sun has spots, the weather tends to be wetter and rainier."
Influence Of Solar Activity On State Of Wheat Market In Medieval England - research by Lev A. Pustilnik & Gregory Yom Din
A possible relationship between spectral bands in sunspot number and the space-time organization of our planetary system - by Schwentek & Elling (1984).
On the origin of solar cycle periodicity - by Attila Grandpierre (1996)
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Energy and material flows of megacities - by Christopher A. Kennedy, Iain Stewart, et.al
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Jay Wright Forrester (1918 – 2016)
Jay Wright Forrester was a American computer engineer and systems scientist. He was a professor at MIT. Forrester is known as the founder of system dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems and is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.
Image from: https://mediainspiratorium.com/1960-1970/ The Many Careers of Jay Forrester (MIT Tech Review)
"Computing pioneer Jay Forrester, SM ’45, developed magnetic-core memory. Then he founded the field of system dynamics. Those are just two of his varied pursuits."
Jay Forrester’s System Dynamics and World Model
Forrester's model of the world's dynamics. This map models the dynamics between population and economic growth (from 1971 to 2021) by relating population, natural resources, pollution, capital investment, food and quality of life (Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 144). 
"The second major noncorporate application of system dynamics came shortly after the first. In 1970, Jay Forrester was invited by the Club of Rome to a meeting in Bern, Switzerland. The Club of Rome is an organization devoted to solving what its members describe as the "predicament of mankind"—that is, the global crisis that may appear sometime in the future, due to the demands being placed on the Earth's carrying capacity by the world's exponentially growing population. At the Bern meeting, Forrester was asked if system dynamics could be used to address the predicament of mankind. His answer, of course, was that it could. On the plane back from the Bern meeting, Forrester created the first draft of a system dynamics model of the world's socioeconomic system. He called this model WORLD1. Upon his return to the US, Forrester refined WORLD1 in preparation for a visit to MIT by members of the Club of Rome. Forrester called the refined version of the model WORLD2. Forrester published WORLD2 in a book titled World Dynamics."
From Jay W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1985 / 1st edition 1961), 174. The Prophet of Unintended Consequences - by Lawrence M. Fisher.
"Jay Forrester’s computer models show the nonlinear roots of calamity and reveal the leverage that can help us avoid it."
Model Metropolis - by Kevin T. Baker "Behind one of the most iconic computer games of all time is a theory of how cities die—one that has proven dangerously influential."
"Will Wright‘s SimCity was originally a map developing feature within the game Raid on Bungeling Bay. Born of Wright’s love for the intricacies of urban planning and of his interest in Jay Wright Forrester‘s System Dynamics, the city-building simulator was later developed as a spin-off program because Wright was more interested in building the city’s maps than playing the actual game. (via)"
Video: A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester
Video: Jay Forrester (Part 1)
Applications of System Dynamics - Jay W. Forrester
Forrester on Courage
"Life must be very practical, it is not theoretical, it is not conceptual with out purpose. What works gets results." - Jay Forrester
#Complexity #Systems #Business #Military #ClimateChange #Regenerative #ML #KM #SE
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Climate threats now dominate long-term risks, survey of global leaders finds
"Long-term risks from climate change now outweigh those from cyberattacks, pandemics, geopolitical conflict and weapons of mass destruction, decision-makers say. [...] From wildfires in Australia, Brazil and California to worsening storms, floods and droughts, "all key indicators point that this is a situation that's bad and it's getting worse," said John Drzik, chairman of Marsh & McLennan Insights, a global risk, insurance and professional services firm. [...] For instance, 370 investors managing $40 trillion in assets have now pledged to make their investments climate friendly."
"Peter Giger, chief risk officer for the Zurich Insurance Group, warned that "the longer we wait (to tackle climate change), the more painful the transition will be" because of the rapid plunge in emissions that delay would necessitate.
He pointed to the rapid disappearance of insect species around the world, including those that pollinate 75% of the world's crops, as a result of climate change and other pressures. If insects and the pollination services they provide disappear, "that's a catastrophic outcome" for food security and for business, Giger said. The breakdown of planetary systems has "true costs", he added."
Climate change will reshape markets, McKinsey warns (Financial Times)
"By 2030, all of the 105 countries assessed by McKinsey — which represent 90 per cent of global GDP — were likely to suffer from physical changes such as increased water stress, flooding or a greater number of people exposed to extreme heat, it said."
"The insurance sector is particularly vulnerable, according to the report. Insurers’ current cash reserves may be insufficient to account for future losses and they may not be able to raise premiums enough to cover the gap, McKinsey said. Given the importance of insurance in rebuilding after disasters, this mismatch could send shockwaves through the system.
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"Supply chains and the locations of property development might also need to be rethought. The frequency of hurricanes threatening semiconductor manufacturers is projected to grow as much as fourfold by 2040, McKinsey said. “For unprepared downstream players . . . the revenue loss in a disaster year could be as high as 35 per cent,” the report states."
The six key points of BlackRock's letter to the world's most powerful companies (bbva)
“The evidence on climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core assumptions about modern finance,” says Fink in his letter, recognizing that it “has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.” In his view, all governments, companies and shareholders must take climate change into account.
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The Problem With Switching to Electric Cars (citylab)
"Switching to EVs en masse could help bring down planet-killing carbon emissions. But Americans also need to drive less, right now. If Americans drive their electric cars anywhere near as much as they do with their current gas-guzzlers, it would cancel out the carbon reduction brought on by electrification."
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The Vikings erected a runestone out of fear of a climate catastrophe (Uni Gothenburg)
"Several passages on the Rök stone – the world’s most famous Viking Age runic monument – suggest that the inscription is about battles and for over a hundred years, researchers have been trying to connect the inscription with heroic deeds in war. Now, a new interpretation of the inscription is being presented. The study shows that the inscription deals with an entirely different kind of battle: the conflict between light and darkness, warmth and cold, life and death."
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Britain's electricity generation mix over the last 100 years (via)
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Ecology and Design: Parallel Genealogies - Ecological thinking remains a powerful lens for understanding complex adaptive systems. - by Chris Reed & Nina-Marie Lister (2014)
#Regenerative #Design #Architecture #ClimateChange #Complexity
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Google and Amazon are now in the oil business (Vox, 2020)
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Earth’s magnetic field fluctuations explained by new data - Research by Vincent J. Hare, John A. Tarduno, Thomas Huffman et.al (Uni of Rochester, 2018)
NASA's simulation of geomagnetic reversal
Weakening magnetic field is a recurrent anomaly. The new data provides more evidence that a region in southern Africa may play a unique role in magnetic pole reversals.
Related: Mysterious Anomaly Under Africa Is Weakening Earth's Magnetic Field (2018)
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The US government has approved funds for geoengineering research (MIT Tech Review)
"The $1.4 trillion spending bills that Congress passed this week included a little-noticed provision setting aside at least $4 million for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to conduct stratospheric monitoring and research efforts. The program includes assessments of “solar climate interventions,” including “proposals to inject material [into the stratosphere] to affect climate.”
